Blog
Articles, research, and technical writing, newest first.
- The Persuasion Ceiling
Debugging a House-race spending optimizer that projected an implausible 13-seat gain, tracing the bug to an unbounded marginal-return term, and fixing it with an endogenous persuasion ceiling.
- Political Theta
Building a House-race allocation model on DCCC and FEC data and deriving Θ, a Bellman-equation measure of when a campaign should spend versus wait. A later rebuild didn't support the misallocation it seemed to find.
- Chess to Problems
Chess openings as a window into decision architecture: what repertoire choices reveal about risk tolerance, complexity, and how I approach problems beyond the board.
- Why My Model Trained Differently on a CPU and a GPU
Why identical Temporal Fusion Transformer training runs diverge between CPU and GPU — floating-point rounding, reduction order, and the hidden nondeterminism of deep learning.
- DUI: Drinking, Driving, and Bayesian Analysis
What if I told you that based on a positive breathalyzer test, the probability that you were driving drunk is less than 2%?